Are analysts' loss functions asymmetric?

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts? earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for forecast bias is that analysts have asymmetric loss functions. We test this alternative explanation. Theory predicts that if loss functions are asymmetric then forecast error bias depends on forecast error variance, but not necessarily on forecast error skewness. Our results confirm that the ex ante forecast error variance is a significant determinant of forecast error and that, after controlling for variance, the sign of the coefficient on forecast error skewness is opposite to that found in prior research. Our results are consistent with financial analysts having asymmetric loss functions. Further analysis reveals that forecast bias varies systematically across style portfolios formed on book-to-price and market capitalization. These firm characteristics capture systematic variation in forecast error variance and skewness. Within style portfolios, forecast error variance continues to play a dominant role in explaining forecast error.

Are analysts? loss functions asymmetric?

Recent research by Gu and Wu (2003) and Basu and Markov (2004) suggests that the well-known optimism bias in analysts? earnings forecasts is attributable to analysts minimizing symmetric, linear loss functions when the distribution of forecast errors is skewed. An alternative explanation for forecast bias is that analysts have asymmetric loss functions. We test this alternative explanation. Theory predicts that if loss functions are asymmetric then forecast error bias depends on forecast error variance, but not necessarily on forecast error skewness. Our results confirm that the ex ante forecast error variance is a significant determinant of forecast error and that, after controlling for variance, the sign of the coefficient on forecast error skewness is opposite to that found in prior research. Our results are consistent with financial analysts having asymmetric loss functions. Further analysis reveals that forecast bias varies systematically across style portfolios formed on book-to-price and market capitalization. These firm characteristics capture systematic variation in forecast error variance and skewness. Within style portfolios, forecast error variance continues to play a dominant role in explaining forecast error.

Airfoil self-noise and prediction

A prediction method is developed for the self-generated noise of an airfoil blade encountering smooth flow. The prediction methods for the individual self-noise mechanisms are semiempirical and are based on previous theoretical studies and data obtained from tests of two- and three-dimensional airfoil blade sections. The self-noise mechanisms are due to specific boundary-layer phenomena, that is, the boundary-layer turbulence passing the trailing edge, separated-boundary-layer and stalled flow over an airfoil, vortex shedding due to laminar boundary layer instabilities, vortex shedding from blunt trailing edges, and the turbulent vortex flow existing near the tip of lifting blades. The predictions are compared successfully with published data from three self-noise studies of different airfoil shapes. An application of the prediction method is reported for a large scale-model helicopter rotor, and the predictions compared well with experimental broadband noise measurements. A computer code of the method is given

Propeller aircraft interior noise model

An analytical model was developed to predict the interior noise of propeller-driven aircraft. The fuselage model is that of a cylinder with a structurally-integral floor. The cabin sidewall is stiffened by stringers and ring frames, and the floor by longitudinal beams. The cabin interior is covered with a sidewall treatments consisting of layers of porous material and an impervious trim septum. Representation of the propeller pressure field is utilized as input data in the form of the propeller noise signature at a series of locations on a grid over the fuselage structure. Results obtained from the analytical model are compared with test data measured by NASA in a scale model cylindrical fuselage excited by a model propeller

General Kerr-NUT-AdS Metrics in All Dimensions

The Kerr-AdS metric in dimension D has cohomogeneity [D/2]; the metric components depend on the radial coordinate r and [D/2] latitude variables \mu_i that are subject to the constraint \sum_i \mu_i^2=1. We find a coordinate reparameterisation in which the \mu_i variables are replaced by [D/2]-1 unconstrained coordinates y_\alpha, and having the remarkable property that the Kerr-AdS metric becomes diagonal in the coordinate differentials dy_\alpha. The coordinates r and y_\alpha now appear in a very symmetrical way in the metric, leading to an immediate generalisation in which we can introduce [D/2]-1 NUT parameters. We find that (D-5)/2 are non-trivial in odd dimensions, whilst (D-2)/2 are non-trivial in even dimensions. This gives the most general Kerr-NUT-AdS metric in $D$ dimensions. We find that in all dimensions D\ge4 there exist discrete symmetries that involve inverting a rotation parameter through the AdS radius. These symmetries imply that Kerr-NUT-AdS metrics with over-rotating parameters are equivalent to under-rotating metrics. We also consider the BPS limit of the Kerr-NUT-AdS metrics, and thereby obtain, in odd dimensions and after Euclideanisation, new families of Einstein-Sasaki metrics.Comment: Latex, 24 pages, minor typos correcte

The general form of supersymmetric solutions of N=(1,0) U(1) and SU(2) gauged supergravities in six dimensions

We obtain necessary and sufficient conditions for a supersymmetric field configuration in the N=(1,0) U(1) or SU(2) gauged supergravities in six dimensions, and impose the field equations on this general ansatz. It is found that any supersymmetric solution is associated to an $SU(2)\ltimes \mathbb{R}^4$ structure. The structure is characterized by a null Killing vector which induces a natural 2+4 split of the six dimensional spacetime. A suitable combination of the field equations implies that the scalar curvature of the four dimensional Riemannian part, referred to as the base, obeys a second order differential equation. Bosonic fluxes introduce torsion terms that deform the $SU(2)\ltimes\mathbb{R}^4$ structure away from a covariantly constant one. The most general structure can be classified in terms of its intrinsic torsion. For a large class of solutions the gauge field strengths admit a simple geometrical interpretation: in the U(1) theory the base is K\"{a}hler, and the gauge field strength is the Ricci form; in the SU(2) theory, the gauge field strengths are identified with the curvatures of the left hand spin bundle of the base. We employ our general ansatz to construct new supersymmetric solutions; we show that the U(1) theory admits a symmetric Cahen-Wallach$_4\times S^2$ solution together with a compactifying pp-wave. The SU(2) theory admits a black string, whose near horizon limit is $AdS_3\times S_3$. We also obtain the Yang-Mills analogue of the Salam-Sezgin solution of the U(1) theory, namely $R^{1,2}\times S^3$, where the $S^3$ is supported by a sphaleron. Finally we obtain the additional constraints implied by enhanced supersymmetry, and discuss Penrose limits in the theories.Comment: 1+29 pages, late

Aerodynamic Centers of Arbitrary Airfoils Below Stall

The aerodynamic center of an airfoil is commonly estimated to lie at the quarter-chord. This traditional estimate is based on thin airfoil theory, which neglects aerodynamic and geometric nonlinearities. Even below stall, these nonlinearities can have a significant effect on the location of the aerodynamic center. Here, a method is presented for accurately predicting the aerodynamic center of any airfoil from known lift, drag, and pitching-moment data as a function of angle of attack. The method accounts for aerodynamic and geometric nonlinearities, and it does not include small-angle, small-camber, and thin-airfoil approximations. It is shown that the aerodynamic center of an airfoil with arbitrary amounts of thickness and camber in an inviscid flow is a single, deterministic point, independent of angle of attack, and lies at the quarter-chord only in the limit as the airfoil thickness and camber approach zero. Furthermore, it is shown that, once viscous effects are included, the aerodynamic center is not a single point but is a function of angle of attack. Differences between this general solution and that predicted by the thin airfoil theory can be on the order of 3%, which is significant when predicting flutter speeds. Additionally, the results have implications for predicting the neutral point of a complete aircraft

The contribution of cooking appliances and residential traffic proximity to aerosol personal exposure

Purpose Indoor and outdoor factors affect personal exposure to air pollutants. Type of cooking appliance (i.e. gas, electricity), and residential location related to traffic are such factors. This research aims to investigate the effect of cooking with gas and electric appliances, as an indoor source of aerosols, and residential traffic as outdoor sources, on personal exposures to particulate matter with an aerodynamic diameter lower than 2.5 μm (PM2.5), black carbon (BC), and ultrafine particles (UFP). Methods Forty subjects were sampled for four consecutive days measuring personal exposures to three aerosol pollutants, namely PM2.5, BC, and UFP, which were measured using personal sensors. Subjects were equally distributed into four categories according to the use of gas or electric stoves for cooking, and to residential traffic (i.e. houses located near or away from busy roads). Results/conclusion Cooking was identified as an indoor activity affecting exposure to aerosols, with mean concentrations during cooking ranging 24.7–50.0 μg/m3 (PM2.5), 1.8–4.9 μg/m3 (BC), and 1.4 × 104 –4.1 × 104 particles/cm3 (UFP). This study also suggest that traffic is a dominant source of exposure to BC, since people living near busy roads are exposed to higher BC concentrations than those living further away from traffic. In contrast, the contribution of indoor sources to personal exposure to PM2.5 and UFP seems to be greater than from outdoor traffic sources. This is probably related to a combination of the type of building construction and a varying range of activities conducted indoors. It is recommended to ensure a good ventilation during cooking to minimize exposure to cooking aerosols

Importance of relative humidity in the oxidative ageing of organic aerosols: case study of the ozonolysis of maleic acid aerosol

Many important atmospheric aerosol processes depend on the chemical composition of the aerosol, e.g. water uptake and particle cloud interactions. Atmospheric ageing processes, such as oxidation reactions, significantly and continuously change the chemical composition of aerosol particles throughout their lifetime. These ageing processes are often poorly understood. In this study we utilize an aerosol flow tube set up and an ultra-high resolution mass spectrometer to explore the effect of relative humidity (RH) in the range of <5–90% on the ozonolysis of maleic acid aerosol which is employed as model organic aerosol system. Due to the slow reaction kinetics relatively high ozone concentrations of 160–200 ppm were used to achieve an appreciable degree of oxidation of maleic acid. The effect of oxidative ageing on the hygroscopicity of maleic acid particles is also investigated using an electrodynamic balance and thermodynamic modelling. RH has a profound effect on the oxidation of maleic acid particles. Very little oxidation is observed at RH < 50% and the only observed reaction products are glyoxylic acid and formic acid. In comparison, when RH > 50% there are about 15 oxidation products identified. This increased oxidation was observed even when the particles were exposed to high humidities long after a low RH ozonolysis reaction. This result might have negative implications for the use of water as an extraction solvent for the analysis of oxidized organic aerosols. These humidity-dependent differences in the composition of the ozonolyzed aerosol demonstrate that water is both a key reactant in the oxidation scheme and a determinant of particle phase and hence diffusivity. The measured chemical composition of the processed aerosol is used to model the hygroscopic growth, which compares favourably with water uptake results from the electrodynamic balance measurements. A reaction mechanism is presented which takes into account the RH dependent observations. This study emphasises the importance of studying the combined effects of several atmospheric parameters such as oxidants and RH to accurately describe the complex oxidation scheme of organic aerosols